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Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailIran likely to dismiss limited strike from Israel, consulting firm saysGulf State Analytics CEO Giorgio Cafiero says he is "cautiously optimistic" that Israel and Iran can avoid moving up the escalation ladder after Israel carried out a limited strike on Iran.
Persons: Giorgio Cafiero, Israel Organizations: Iran Locations: Israel, Iran
Jordan shot down an Iranian missile, and other Arab states may've provided intel. In March, Saudi Arabia and Iran restored ties with the help of China, agreeing to reopen embassies in their respective capitals. AdvertisementHowever, according to reports, Saudi Arabia and other Arab states are willing to continue discussions with Israel once fighting in Gaza has abated. There is a risk for Arab states though in being seen to come to Israel's aid, Giorgio Cafiero, CEO of Gulf State Analytics, told Business Insider. AdvertisementAs the conflict between Israel and Iran intensifies, Arab states face a tough choice between their security priorities and addressing public anger over Gaza.
Persons: Israel, Jordan, may've, , Samih, Marj Al, Yasmine Farouk, Farouk, Abraham, Trump, Israel's, Giorgio Cafiero Organizations: intel, Service, Deutsche Welle, St, Anadolu, Getty, Israel, Carnegie Endowment, International Peace, New York Times, Abraham Accords, Analytics Locations: Iranian, Israel, Iran, Damascus, Jordan, Gaza, Jordanian, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Gulf, Marj, Amman , Jordan, China, Bahrain, Amman
download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . On Thursday Bahrain, one of the original signatories of the Trump-era Abraham Accords, said it would recall its ambassador to Israel. AdvertisementAdvertisement"Presumably there's a limit to how much carnage Israel can get away with before Arab countries pull out of the Abraham Accords. The UAE has reaffirmed its commitment to the Abraham Accords, reported the Jewish News Syndicate. But the longer Israel's campaign continues, and images and civilian deaths and devastation are broadcast around the world, the more public anger will build, putting huge pressure on Arab leaders to act.
Persons: , Joe Biden, Donald Trump, Israel, Abraham, Giorgio Cafiero, Cafiero, Abraham Accords —, Biden Organizations: Saudi, Service, United Arab Emirates, Protesters, Thursday Bahrain, Trump, Abraham Accords, West Bank, Analytics, Abraham, Jewish News Syndicate, Orly Goldschmidt, CNN Locations: Israel, Gaza, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Egypt, Morocco, West, Gulf, Iran, Saudi
Saudi Arabian Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman threatened the US amid an oil price dispute, leaks say. The crown prince is seeking to assert a more independent path from the US. In turn, Crown Prince Mohammed has mocked Biden behind his back, reported The Wall St. Journal, and believes he can secure nuclear technology from the US by playing rival powers off against each other. But Cafiero told Insider that despite marked differences and apparent personal antipathy between Biden and Crown Prince Mohammed, the Saudis remain committed to working with the US. "While the crown prince wants to work with Washington, he doesn't want anyone in the US to view Saudi Arabia as America's puppet state," he remarked.
Persons: Saudi Arabian Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, , State Anthony Blinken, Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Joe Biden, Biden's, it's, Biden, Giorgio Cafiero, Mohammed bin Salman, Cafiero, Jamal Khashoggi, Prince Mohammed Organizations: Saudi, Saudi Arabian Crown, Service, State, Saudi Arabia's Crown, State Department, CNN, The Washington Post, US, Washington , D.C, White House, White, Analytics, Biden, Washington Post, ., Washington Locations: Saudi Arabian, Riyadh, Saudi, Russia, Washington ,, China, Washington, Gulf, Saudi Arabia, Kingdom, America
Qatar has been steadily mending ties with Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain. Qatar cast the Syrian National Coalition as a government-in-exile, handing them Syria's Arab League seat and opening the Doha mission in a villa nearby other embassies. Several Gulf states including Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates began backing rebel groups fighting to oust Assad from power. As Syria's anti-Assad movement lost ground, "Saudi Arabia and the UAE shifted their policy most dramatically but Qatar has not," Kamrava said. Qatar initially opposed efforts this spring by Saudi Arabia to galvanise support to readmit Syria to the Arab League following its 2011 suspension.
The US has replaced its threats with lucrative contracts for the crown prince as part of a high stakes power game being waged over dominance of the region. Biden last weekend dispatched his national security advisor, Jake Sullivan, to Saudi Arabia, for discussions with Saudi officials. Last year, Crown Prince Mohammed and Xi agreed to deepen their cooperation across a range of economic and security issues. Chinese President Xi Jinping holds talks with Saudi Crown Prince and Prime Minister Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud at the royal palace in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, Dec. 8, 2022. "It is important to note that Saudi Arabia is not seeking to burn its bridges with the United States.
President Joe Biden had pledged to hold Saudi Arabia to account over cutting oil supplies. It came after Saudi Arabia and Russia cut oil supplies, sparking inflation fears. In concert with Russia, Saudi Arabia had cut oil production, an economic kick in the shin for the US just in time for the midterm elections. Three months later, Saudi Arabia and its crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman, remain unpunished. Cafiero noted a series of other developments he said had focused minds in both the US and Saudi Arabia on common interests.
In 2022, Saudi Arabia sought closer ties with Russia and China. Russia's President Vladimir Putin (R) and Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman attend the G20 Leaders' Summit in Buenos Aires, on November 30, 2018. Analysts say that US criticism of Saudi Arabia's human-rights record and its suppression of domestic dissent infuriate Riyadh. Crown Prince Mohammed has more affinity with the ideology of fellow strongmen Xi or Putin than with the US, said Alterman. "Saudi Arabia, China, and Russia all believe in the model of 'authoritarian stability'.
Saudi Arabia is hosting China's President Xi Jinping at a lavish summit this week. This comes in the wake of a series of diplomatic spats between Saudi Arabia and the US. On Sunday, Saudi Arabia announced that it would be keeping the production cuts in place, but the country has also made diplomatic moves seemingly designed to placate the US. Saudi Arabia is China's main oil supplier, and this is an issue likely to feature prominently at the summit. Though Crown Prince Mohammed is seeking to steer a foreign policy less dependent on Washington, DC, it's unlikely either nation will want to significantly loosen ties any time soon, analysts say.
Saudi Arabia has made moves to placate the US after a recent feud over oil. Diplomatic ties between the Biden White House and the Saudi crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman, are being tested as never before in a series of high-stakes diplomatic encounters. Russian President Vladimir Putin shakes hands with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman in Moscow in May 2017. Biden himself said there would be "consequences" for Saudi Arabia, though did not specify what they'd be. "These are mutual interests keeping the US and Saudi Arabia interested in the bilateral partnership.
Saudi ruler Mohammed bin Salman wants to assert himself internationally. It is a change driven by the Saudi crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman, who is deliberately snubbing the US in an attempt to chart a more independent path, an expert told Insider. Specifically, this has taken the form of Saudi Arabia joining Russia other oil-rich nations to announce a steep cut in production. Cafiero, the analysts, said that Crown Prince Mohammed believes that drawing closer to Russia and China will secure more "leverage" internationally. "Bin Salman and others in Saudi Arabia took a tremendous amount of offense to that rhetoric.
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